March of 2011 was a big month for
Nintendo. It began with the release of
Pokemon Black and
Pokemon White and ended with the launch of its 3DS handheld platform.
Nintendo has boasted impressive sales numbers for each, and there's no reason to doubt the data here. Although 3DS units were still available for purchase at many retail locations through the end of March, there's enough evidence out there to suggest that the 3DS launch was a big success for
Nintendo... at least big enough to walk away with at least the top spot on the hardware sales chart for the month.
Before continuing on with the analysis, here are the predicted hardware sales rankings for March:
-
Nintendo 3DS
-
Nintendo DS
-
Microsoft Xbox 360
-
Nintendo Wii
-
Sony PlayStation 3
-
Sony PSP
For clarification's sake, it's worth noting that it's unclear how NPD will break down sales of
Nintendo DS hardware SKUs. It's believed that the 3DS will be its own separate entity while legacy DS platforms (DS Lite/DSi/DSi XL) will continue to be grouped together. If all DS hardware continues to be grouped, expect a landslide victory for DS hardware over the 360.
When it comes to hardware, March was big for
Nintendo handhelds.
Pokemon Black &
White likely helped to fuel sales of DS hardware early in the month, especially for consumers who were on the fence about a 3DS purchase. At the end of the month, word of mouth regarding possible shortages and general excitement and curiosity regarding the 3DS helped to move units. What's unclear-- and throws a small amount of uncertainty into these predictions-- is how many units that
Nintendo shipped to retail. if that number was smaller than expected, it's possible the the gap between legacy DS hardware and the 3DS could be narrow or even nonexistent. I think that supply was ample enough to meet demand, especially for a $250 platform, and that the debut numbers should be pretty impressive-- especially for one week of sales only.
Xbox 360 sales should continue to be strong, fueled by the continuing parade of first-person shooters to hit retail.
Homefront was the beneficiary of some significant pre-release buzz, but
Crysis 2 and residual sales of
Bulletstorm look to have helped with 360 sales as well. Supply constraints continued to exist for standalone 360 hardware (minus Kinect), while the more expensive SKUs with Kinect included remained plentiful for most of March. These constraints were tending to loosen during the last week of March and look to continue to ease through the second quarter (April-May-June) . It's clear that momentum still belongs to
Microsoft, and now that some more Kinect games are (finally) starting to make their way toward retail releases, this should continue for at least the next two months.
The fourth and fifth spots could actually be a tight battle between the Wii and the PlayStation 3. Wii is getting the fourth spot solely based on past performance trends, but there's been very little new software to support new sales of the platform. It's very possible that the PlayStation 3 closed the the perceived gap or even overtook Wii for March sales, given a full month of Killzone 3 sales, the release of MLB 11, and a decent third-party release slate for the month. Unfortunately for
Sony, PlayStation 3 sales have rarely risen above the Wii even with software releases have been strong. Until this trend is proven wrong, the safe bet is to stick with the norm.
Turning to software sales, the top three spots on the Top 10 list seem pretty secure based on early sales data from
Nintendo and
THQ.
Pokemon White,
Pokemon Black, and
Homefront should be first, second, and third on the list. After that, predictions become harder to make.
Crysis 2 and
MLB 11: The Show seem like decent bets to make Top 10 debuts. That leaves five spots. Look for
Just Dance 2 to continue its reign on the software sales chart, possibly as high as the fifth spot.
Call of Duty: Black Ops and
Killzone 3 could be repeats on the chart, as well. The game to watch will be
Crysis 2, as it's tough to predict where the game will end up. Sales did pick up for the title briskly after the initial day of release. One other thing to watch will be to see if any 3DS software cracks the Top 10.
Super Street Fighter IV looks to have had the most success, but it's unclear as to whether sales were strong enough to make the list.
Lastly, it will be very interesting to see how YOY (year over year) sales compare. Food and fuel prices continued to skyrocket in March, and the tragic natural disasters in Japan may have affected spending and consumer confidence. Will impressive sales numbers for
Pokemon and
Homefront, along with the 3DS debut, offset these factors... or will we see declines begin anew after a positive month of February? My gut feeling is that YOY comparisons will be relatively flat and that offsetting will occur... for now. April looks far more bleak, with a relative dearth of new software arriving, but we'll save that for next month's predictions.
Unfortunately, getting concrete sales data to compare with these predictions will be more difficult for the foreseeable future as the
NPD Group has respectfully asked analysts to not share data with the public, which is how I've been getting my numbers. Publishers and hardware companies, meanwhile, will share numbers as they feel are appropriate. When the numbers are released, I'll do my best to round up what I can and share them with any analysis possible.
Now, it's your turn. Do you agree or disagree with these predictions? Could
Microsoft surprise us all and finish on top for another month, despite the
Nintendo onslaught? Do you think that
Homefront predictions are too bullish? Please leave your comments and predictions below and let us know what's on your mind.
